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AI Models and Prediction Markets Diverge on Next Pope Speculation
AI Models and Prediction Markets Diverge on Next Pope Speculation
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Following the death of Pope Francis, the College of Cardinals prepares for a conclave to select the next leader of the Catholic Church—a decision blending spiritual significance with historical political weight. While traditional prediction markets weigh odds on papal succession, thirteen leading AI models produced divergent forecasts, revealing a stark contrast between algorithmic and human-driven speculation.
The Vatican’s opaque selection process remains resistant to quantitative modeling, underscoring the limitations of machine learning in high-stakes, tradition-bound decisions. No clear frontrunner emerged from the AI analysis, suggesting the Holy See’s next chapter may defy both algorithmic and market expectations.
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